- Can our fiscal reserves cope?
- How would ageing population affect government expenditure?
- Is structural deficit a real concern?
- Can we avoid a structural deficit?
- Public Finance Projection Game
- Report of the Working Group on Long-Term Fiscal Planning
- Multimedia Information (Videos and Game)
- Fiscal Projections
- Presentation Material at Press Conference
The Financial Secretary announced in the 2013-14 Budget Speech to set up a working group to explore ways to make more comprehensive planning for Hong Kong's public finances to cope with the ageing population and the Government's other long-term commitments.
The Working Group on Long-Term Fiscal Planning, led by the Permanent Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury (Treasury), was set up in June 2013. The Working Group comprises government officials and non-official members who are scholars and experts with vast experience and rich knowledge in their professions/sectors such as economics, accountancy, financial services and actuary services. The then membership of the Working Group is as follows:
| Chairperson | |
|---|---|
| Ms Elizabeth Tse | Permanent Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury (Treasury) |
| Non-official Members | |
| Professor Liu Pak-wai | Research Professor Institute of Global Economics and Finance The Chinese University of Hong Kong |
| Professor Francis Lui | Professor of Economics and Director of Center for Economic Development The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology |
| Mr Mark Saunders | Group Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer AIA Group Limited |
| Mrs Jennifer Wong | Former Partner KPMG |
| Mr Marcellus Wong | Senior Adviser PricewaterhouseCoopers |
| Ex-officio Members | |
| Mr Martin Siu | Director of Accounting Services |
| Mrs Helen Chan | Government Economist |
| Ms Esther Leung | Deputy Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury (Treasury)1 |
| Secretary | |
| Ms Susanna Cheung | Principal Assistant Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury (Treasury)(H) |
The academic qualifications/professional qualifications/professional experience of the members of the Working Group are available here.
The objective of the Working Group is to assess, under existing policies, the long-term public expenditure needs and changes in government revenue, and to propose feasible measures with reference to overseas experience.
The Working Group has completed a fiscal sustainability appraisal on the public finances in Hong Kong and released its report on 3 March 2014. The report can be downloaded here.
A tool to illustrate various projections under different macroeconomic assumptions and expenditure scenarios is available here.
Similar studies overseas for reference
Other economies and some international organisations have also conducted similar studies on fiscal sustainability on public finances, examples are:
The 2010 intergenerational report, The Treasury, Australian Government
http://archive.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/
Economic and Fiscal Implications of Canada’s Aging Population, Department of Finance, Canada
https://www.fin.gc.ca/pub/eficap-rebvpc/index-eng.asp
Third Report on the Sustainability of Public Finances, Federal Ministry of Finance, Germany
http://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/EN/Standardartikel/Service/Publications/Brochures/2011-10-31-third-report-sustainability-of-public-finances.html
Ageing and the sustainability of Dutch public finances, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Netherlands
http://www.cpb.nl/en/publication/ageing-and-sustainability-dutch-public-finances
Challenges and Choices: New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Statement, The Treasury, New Zealand
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/longterm/fiscalposition/2009
Long-term Perspectives on the Norwegian Economy 2013, Ministry of Finance, Norway
http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/fin/Documents-and-publications/propositions-and-reports/Reports-to-the-Storting/2012-2013/meld-st-12-2012-2013.html?id=726741
From the Budget Bill for 2008: Sweden’s Economy, Ministry of Finance, Sweden
http://www.government.se/sb/d/574/a/89673
2012 Report on the Long-Term Sustainability of Public Finances in Switzerland, Federal Department of Finance, Switzerland
http://www.efd.admin.ch/dokumentation/00737/00782/02444/?lang=en
Fiscal sustainability report – July 2013, Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK
http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/fiscal-sustainability-report-july-2013/
The Federal Government’s Long-Term Fiscal Outlook, United States Government Accountability Office, US
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-148SP
Report on Public finances in EMU 2013, European Commission
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2013/public-finances-in-emu-2013_en.htm
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
http://www.oecd.org/